Tag: forecasting

5 Levels of Leadership
5-3-1
7-38-55 Percent Rule
7zip
A Fine Mess- A Global Quest for a Simpler, Fairer, and More Efficient Tax System
A Short History of China
Abundance
Accessing Encrypted Cloud Syncs from TrueNAS
Accountability
Accountability Sink
Accounting
Ackerman bargaining
Active component of catnip
ActiveRecord
Actor-Observer Bias
Adverse Selection
Afforestation - Reforestation
Against Overtime
Aggregation Problem
Agile
Agile 8
Aging
AI and Coding
AI Concerns
AI Learning Resources
AlpineJS
Aluminum Company of America (Alcoa)
American Generalship
American Individualism
An Elegant Puzzle
Analytical Reading
Analytics
Anchor and adjustment effect
Anguilla
Annual Planning
Annual Planning Dance
Ansible
Answer the question
Answering a binary, zero-sum question
Anti-Monopoly U.S. History
Anti-patterns in Data Visualization
Anti-Productivity
Apple Pie Position
Arbitrary Coherence
Archetypes of Engineering Managers
Arel
Arizona
Artificial Intelligence
Asking for things
Assasin's Mace Weapons
Assessing the accuracy of our beliefs
Atomic Habits
Audio Transcription
Averaging Advice
awk
AWS
Backcasting
Bad Therapy
Bayes Theorem
Behavioral Change Stairway Model (BCSM)
Behavioral Interview Questions
Being Managed
Bel Canto
Belief in the law of small numbers
Best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA)
Biases
Bill Clinton
Black Swan Event
Blank Sheet Reading Method
Blindspot bias
Blogging
Books
BOT model
Bottom up
Box Jumps
Boyd- The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War
Brainstorming
Branch Non-Fiction Book
Breastfeeding
Breastfeeding and IQ
Brooks's Law
Build vs. Buy
Building Teams
Burnout
Business -- Architecture -- Process -- Organization (BAPO)
Business Strategy
Buy Rehab Rent Refinance Repeat
Buying a house
C.A.R.E.S Framework
Caching
Calendar Tips
Calibrated Questions
Cap Rate
CAP Theorem
Capabilities model for prioritization
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
Carbon Farming with Timber Bamboo- A Superior Sequestration System Compared to Wood
Carbon Markets
Carbon Offsets
Careless People
Central Bank
Central Bank Digital Currency
Central bank put
Central Banking 101
Certifying a carbon offset project
Challenger
Change Management
Changing Strong Willed Leaders Minds
Changing Systems
Chaotic Systems
ChatGPT
Chatham House Rule
Chess
China
Chinese strategies against U.S. Military
Chip War
classic writing style
Clear and Simple as the Truth
Climate Change
Climate Change Havens
Climate Change Migration
Climate Change Mitigation
Clothes
Code Quality
Code Review
Cognitive Task Analysis
Collective Action Problem
Command Line
Communicating as an Executive
Communicating Technical Topics
Communicating to Executives
Communicating with Data
Communication
Companies can come to reflect their customer
Company-Team-Self
Confidence in knowledge
Confront without Confrontation
Conservative roots of the individual mandate
Conventional Monetary Policy
Cooking
Coordinating Groups
Coordination Models
Coronavirus
Costs per reasonable decision
Counter-Intelligence
COVID-19
Crafting a job description
Creating Custom Mappings in OpenSearch integrated with Graylog
Credit Freeze
Cribsheet
Crisis Monetary Policy
Criterion for unlawful weapons
Critical Mass
Crusonia Plant
Cryptocurrency
Cryptography
CUDOS
Culture
Cursor
Cybernetics
Data Engineering
Data Recovery
Data Visualization
Data Visualization fluency
Data Warehouse
Databases
Debt
Decision Making
Decoy Effect
Deep Research
Deflation
Delegation
Denim
Denmark
Descaling the Espresso Machine
DevOps
Direct Air Capture
direnv
Discount Rate
Disposable Credit Cards
Docker
Document Culture
Doom Emacs
DORA Metrics
dotfiles
Driving Culture Change
Dumb Phones
Early Postpartum Parenting
Economics
Ecto
Efficiency vs. Effectiveness
Elgato Stream Deck
Elixir
ELK Stack
Emacs
Email Aliases
Email Only Services
Email Templates
Engineering Career Ladder
Engineering Organization
Enhanced Oil Recovery
Epigenome
Equity Markets
EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)
Eurodollar
Evaluating Technical Managers
Even Overs
Excel
Executive Dashboards
Executive Presence
Executive Skill Set
exiftool
Expected Value
Experienced leaders can lead approximately 5-7 people
Èze
F-35
Factfulness
Failure of U.S. to meet the future threat from China
Fallacies
Fantastical
Favorite Quotes
Fed Watching
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Open Market Committee
Federal Reserve
Federation
Feedback
Feedback Loop
Fiction Book Reviews
Financial Fraud
Financial Instability Hypothesis
Financial Shenanigans
Financial Statements
Finding balance as a leader
Finishing
Fooled by Randomness
Forward Pass and Backward Pass
Four Types of Money
France
Free AI Tools and Models
FreeBSD
FreeNAS - TrueNAS
Frontier of Risk
Functional Programming Languages
Furin
Furin Clevage Site
FX-swap market
fzf
Gambler's Fallacy
Game Theory
Gen-Z Mental Health Crisis
General Schriever and ICBMs
Geopolitics
George H.W. Bush
George W. Bush
Gerald Ford
Gerasimov Doctrine
git
GnuPG (gpg)
Go (lang)
Go Fever
Goal Setting
Goliath
Goodhart's Law
Great Power Conflict
Group Decision Making
Group Reasoning
Growth Metrics
Guaranteeing Execution
Habit Change
Habit Stacking
Hacking
Hacks
Hallmarks of Aging
Hammerspoon
Hardware
Hardware Projects
Haskell
Hawaii
Headcount Planning
Health
Health Benefits of Exercise
Healthcare Data Integration
Heavily Discount Parenting Advice
Hedge hogs and foxes
Hedging by options dealers and sudden equity drops
High Level SDLC Metric tools
High Output Management
High Standards
Hindsight Bias
Hiring
History of FBI negotiation failures
Hobbies
Holding others Accountable
Home
Home Gym Platform
Home Networking
Homelab
Hot Tub Maintenance
How Big Things Get Done
How to Manage Risk
How to Talk so Little Kids Will Listen
How to Train a Wild Elephant
Huey Long
Human Command, Machine Control
Hyper Text Markup Language
Ida Tarbell
Ideas
Identifying a doomed project
Image Schema
Improving Performance
Improving Ruby Test Performance
Incentives
Incident Response
Incident Response Plan
Infant Sleep
Inflation
Influence
Information Theory of Aging
Inspected Trust
Inspectional Reading
Install Absinthe in a Phoenix project
Instrumental Variable
Integrating an acquired company
Inter-Team Communication
Interest Rates
Interest Rates and Asset prices
Interest Rates and Economic Growth
Interesting Mental Models and Axioms
Intervention points in systems
Interviewing Candidates
Intrusion Detection System
Inverse Thinking
Investing
Ireland
Iron Triangle
Is risk management being practiced in a company-
JAMStack
JavaScript
Jimmy Carter
Job Search
John D. Rockefeller
Journaling
jq
Junior Software Developer
Kadane's Algorithm
Kill Chain
Kill Criteria
Knowledge Worker Output
Labeling
Law
Leadership
Leadership during Crisis
Leading without Authority
Leaf Non-Fiction book
Learning
Learning New Things
Lee Kuan Yew
Lee Kuan Yew - book
Leveraged Buy Out
Life
Life Advice
Life Cycle Assessment
Life Map
Lifespan
Ligatures
Lindy Effect
Linux
Literary Book Notes
LiveView
Load Balancers
Load Head Dam danger
Location, vocation, relation
Lochnerism
Lock picking
Long Firm
ls
Lua
Ludlow Massacre
Lying for Money
macOS
macOS Command Line Tools
macOS window managers
Mailmate
Making Things Happen
Making Work Visible
Management
Management by Exception
Management By Objectives (MBO)
Management Skills
Management Training
Management vs. Leadership
Managers grow and coordinate their team
Managing Humans
Managing Managers
Managing the business
Managing Up
Marginal Notes in HTML
Markdown
Math
Matrix Management
Maui
Measurements for Business
Measuring Forecasts
Mechanical Keyboards
Meditations
Meeting Purge
Meetings
Meetings convey culture
Memorized Rules
Memory Management in Rust
Mental Models
Mentorship
Mergers and Acquisitions
Metadiscourse
Metrics and Management
Metrics and Pressure
Micro-pessimist, macro-optimist
Minimalism and Farmhouse Chic
Minimum Effective Dose
Mirroring
Mission statement
Modeling Systems
Modern Corporate Brutality
Modern Monetary Theory
Mòjiāng viral outbreak
Money and Finance
Money Creation
Money Markets
Monkeys and Pedestals
Monopsony
Monte Carlo method
Motivated Reasoning
Mouseless Interaction
Murphy Bed Build
My 6 memorized rules
My book notes
My Ideal Work Culture
Narrative Commitments Tasks
Narrative Non-Fiction Book
Natural Language Processing
navi
Negative Interest Rates
Negotiation
Negotiation One Sheet
Neovim
Netherlands
Networking
Networking (Computer)
Never letter a good crisis go to waste
Never Split the Difference
NextJS
Nix
Non-violent communication
North Star Metric
Nos clarify and begin a negotiation
Note Taking
Numbers Station
Objective and key results
Obsidian
On the Edge
Onboard team members through story telling
Onboarding
One Bag
One Hundred Years of Solitude
One-on-Ones
One-on-Ones for the direct report
One-way vs. Two-way Door decisions
OODA Loop
OOPS (Organization Operational Suprise)
Open-ended question asking
OpenAI
Operational Expense (OPEX)
Order of Magnitude Estimation (Fermi)
Org mode
Organizational Structure
Outcome-blind analysis
pandoc
Parenting
Pareto Principle
Parkinson's Law
Passive income in equity markets
Patterns for managing up
Patterns in Group Decision Making
People Hacker
Performance Reviews
Personal Knowledge Management
Personal Systems
Phoenix Webframework
Phone Screening
Photolithography
Pi-hole on RancherOS
Pick two
Picks and Shovels
Pie Problem
Plumbing
Plunder
pmset
Podcasts
Point and Calling
Politics
Polycrisis
Poor Decision Making
Popping the stack
Positional Leadership
Postgresql
Precision Medicine
Predictably Irrational
Pregnancy
Premortems
Presentations
Pressure and Project Schedule
Prioritization
Prisoners of Geography
Privacy
Private Equity
Process Behavior Chart
Processes
Processes over results
Product Management
Product Vision Template
Productivity
Programming Languages
Project deadlines and scheduling
Project Manager Interview Question Set
Project Planning
Projects and Project Management
Prospect Theory
Proxmox Virtual Environment (VE)
Psychological Aspects to project planning failures
Public Speaking
Python
Quality vs. Speed
Quantitative Easing
Questions to generate business ideas
r\*
Rails
Random Amusing Knowledge
rclone
Re-evaluating a belief
Re-routing the narrative
Reading
Reading on the Web
Reagan (book)
Recessions
Recommended Books on Product Management
Recommended Books on Technical management
Reference Check opener email
Reference Checking
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)
Regression to the Mean
Regular Expressions (Regex)
Regulation Q
Relationship between reading, writing, and thinking
Remote
Remote Work
Replacements for common command line tools
Repo Market
Repo Transaction
Request for Comment (RFC)
Resignations
Resource Bargain Management
Resulting
Reverse Interview
Reverse Proxy
RICE Scoring
Risk Management
Roadmaps
Rockstars and Teamwork
Role of the U.S. Dollar in Foreign Markets
Ronald Reagan
rsync
Ruby
Rule of Three Yeses
Rules of mutable references in Rust
Rules of Rust Value Ownership
Russian Buzzer Radio Station
Rust
Salary Negotiation
Salvator Mundi
Sankey Diagram
SARS-CoV-1 Outbreak (2002-2004)
SARS‑CoV‑2
Save more or save time
Say Nothing
Saying No pattern while avoiding no
Scaling
Scarcity during Experimentation, Abundance during scaling
Schelling Point
Scotland
Screening Problem
Scrum
Section 1031 Exchange
Security
Self Image
Self Improvement
Self-serving Bias
Semiconductor Chips
Senior Software Engineer
shadow banks
Shell Scripting
Showdown at Gucci Gulch
Side Project
SIDS
Signaling and Shaping in Geopolitics
Signs of executive dysfunction
Silicon Chip Supply Chain
Sinclair's anti-aging regime
Singapore
Situational Leadership Framework
Siturins
skhd
Slack
Slack - book
Sleep Training
SMART Goals
Smart Home
Smoked Ribs
Smoked Salmon
Social Norms and Market Norms
Software Development
Software Development Life Cycle
Software Development Practices
Software Engineer Toolkit
Solar
Some People Need Killing
Songhurst Boring-Sexy Matrix
Sorting in Politics
Sources of Dysfunction in a Company
Speed and Scale
ssh
SSH Hardening
St. Bart's
Staff Engineer
Stafford Beer
Standard Oil
Standards
STAR Framework
Start with Why
Starting a new technical management job
Static Site
Static Site on AWS with Cloudfront and HTTPS
Sticky Sessions
Stock Options
Stocks and Flows
Strategy
Strategy - A History
Strategy is an abused term
Structured Data
Stubborn Attachments
Studying Chess Openings
Superforecasting
Supplements
Supporting a Laboring Partner
Survival Circuit
Survivorship bias
Swaddling
Syntopical Reading
System
System Design
System Failures
Systems Analysis
Systems Thinking
T-Shirts
Tactical Empathy
Tactics vs. Strategy
Tailscale
Tailwind
Taiwan
Task Switching Costs
Task-based onboarding
Taxes
Team Coordination
Team of Rivals
Team Topologies
Technical Career Advice
Technical Careers
Technical Executive
Technical Knowledge
Technical Learning Resources
Technical People Management
Technical Project Estimation
Technical Recruiting
Technical Writing
Temporal discounting
Tending a Digital Garden
Terminal and Coding Themes
Terminal Emulators
Text Editors
Text Summarization with LLM
That's Right is a key to negotiations
The Anxious Generation
The Carbon Age
The Cost of Efficiency
The Cost of Free
The Dead Hand
The Dead Hand - book
The Divide
The Endowment Effect
The Goal
The Halo Effect
The Hundred-Year Marathon
The Importance of Pragmatism at Work
The Information
The Kill Chain
The Lake Wobegone Effect
The Manager's Path
The Mythical Man-Month
The Nature of Projects
The Pinocchio Effect
The Power Broker
The principle of requisite variety
The Process is not a Shield
The Provos
The Question You Do Not Want to be Asked
The Rollup
The Science of Storytelling
The Storm Before the Storm
The Three Types of Work
The Unaccountability Machine
The Undoing Project- A Friendship That Changed Our Minds
The Viral Underclass
The worth of human capital
Theories for biological aging
These Truths
Thinking
Thinking in Bets
Thinking in Systems
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Thread of Doom
Three Types of Negotiation Leverage
Time Management
Time span of discretion
Titan
Title Inflation
tmux
Top of Mind
Training
Traitorous Eight
Transportation costs in early oil days
Travel
Treasury Yield Curve
Truffles
Trunk Non-Fiction Book
Trunk-Branch-Leaf books
Turkey
U-2 Longevity
UI - UX
Ulysses contracts
Understanding Variation
Unpredictability of chaotic systems
V.P. of Engineering
V.P. of Engineering Interview Questions
Values Audit
Viable Systems Model
vim
Viral
Vision vs. Mission vs. Strategy
Vitality genes
Walter Wriston
War
Washing Leafy Greens
Wastewater Surveillance
Ways to Build Remote Culture
Wealth Plus
Web Architecture
Web Development
Web Tracking
Weight Training
Werner Syndrom
What Managers Do
When costs accelerate non-lineraly, do not delay fixes for efficiency
Where to find new books
Whiteboards bias towards the drawer
Whiteshift
Why demographic change can be anxiety provoking
Why We're Polarized
WiFi From the Command Line
Williams Jennings Bryan
Windows Managers
Woodpecker Method
Woodworking
Work difficulty and team member growth
Workplace Diversity
WRAP Framework
Wright Patman
Writing
Writing and Thinking
Wrong way risk
WRX
xargs
XOR Algorithm Trick
Yield Curve Control
Yosemite
Yubikey
Zellij
Zettelkasten
Zone of Possible Agreement (ZOPA)
Zotero
zsh
zsh-histdb

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Tag: forecasting

Measuring Forecasts

Hedge hogs and foxes

Regression to the Mean