Signaling and Shaping in Geopolitics
Russia and the U.S.
The Russia/Ukraine war has exposed gaps in the Russian silicon chip supply chain as sanctions from the US and allies cut into their access to weapons critical chips they began recycling chips from commercial appliances. Russiaâs dependence on foreign semiconductor technology has given the United States and its allies a powerful point of leverage1.
China and the U.S.
The 21st century will see competetion between the U.S. and China for preeminent global power. This does not necessairly mean a military conflict and may be confined to technological and economic battlefields. At this point, China is pursuing a âpeaceful riseâ, focusing on economic and technological progress to overtake the U.S2. China depends upon imports of raw materials and energy, moreover it wants to retain access to U.S. markets and technology2. Lee Kuan Yew frames the growth question between the U.S. and China around the ability to attract talent and entrepeneurship. The U.S. has an ability to influence China through the vast number of students it trains each year, these are future leaders. He views it as challenging for China to recruit talent based on language and cultural barriers. Meanwhile the U.S.âs major edge is an ability to use English as a lingua franca for welcoming immigrant talent2. Chinaâs growth to a comparable force to the US should be a taken as inevitability. The U.S. can do well by working Japan to counter balance Chinaâs size in the South Pacifict2. The south pacific is the likely area of contention because that will be where the growth is. The question for the U.S. will be whether it wants to frame the relationship as a hostile one. If the U.S. challenges Chinaâs soverignity through culture attacks that align with U.S. domestic policy risk hardening China in opposition. Yew feels that the U.S. best bet is to bring china closer through trade and growth policies that push it towards liberalizations.
Lee Kuan Yew2
This is the fundamental choice that the United States has to make: to engage or to isolate China. You cannot have it both ways. You cannot say you will engage China on some issues and isolate her over others. You cannot mix your signals.
Failure of U.S. to meet the future threat from China Chinese strategies against U.S. Military
1. Miller, C. Chip War: The Fight for the Worldâs Most Critical Technology. (Scribner, New York, 2022).
2. Allison, G., Blackwill, R. D., Wyne, A. & Kissinger, H. A. Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Masterâs Insights on China, the United States, and the World. (The MIT Press, 2013).