Being comfortable with instant and “not being sure” is an important part of decision making. We can become better decision makers if we thought less about whether we are confident in our beliefs, but how confident we are in our beliefs1. We can train ourselves to do this by expressing our confidence alongside a statement. For example:
I am 70% sure that John Steinbeck wrote The Grapes of Wrath.
alternatively
John Steinbeck wrote the Grapes of Wrath, I’m a 7 about my confidence.
Alternatively, you can express the fact as a range of values or outcomes.
When communicating, expressing our confidence in knowledge helps with decision making. It also opens the door for others to challenge our beliefs so that they do not feel that they are making you 100% wrong1. Expressing confidence also allows others to evaluate the information without treating it as true initially. This helps break the cycle for them of motivated reasoning by never allowing it to start.
Counter-intuitively expressing confidence alongside facts can also increase trust in the speaker because it signals that they are trying to tell the truth, that they considered the quantity and quality of information. That they are thoughtful and self-aware1.
Sherman Kent developed a probability / wording mapping that was not adopted by the intelligence community for forecasts2
| 100% | Certain |
| 93% (+/- 6%) | Almost certain |
| 75% (+/- 12%) | Probable |
| 50% (+/- 10%) | Chances about even |
| 30% (+/- 10%) | Probably not |
| 7% (+/- 5%) | Almost certainly not |
| 0% | Impossible |
1. Duke, A. Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts. (Portfolio, New York, 2019).
2. Tetlock, P. E. & Gardner, D. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. (Crown, New York, 2015).