The Nature of Projects

Everything costs twice as much, and takes twice as long as you expect.

• The “Iron Law of Megaprojects” according Bent Flybjerg is “over budget, over time, under benefits”¹.
• Projects are driven by psychology and power¹.
• Projects often have a “fat-tailed” distribution (as opposed to normal distributions) where the tails have extreme outcomes. That is, costs aren’t just going over, but theres a non-trivial chance that they go disastrously wrong¹.
• Projects of any meaning size tend to exist in an environment of complexity and interdependencies. Therefore, disruptions tend to ripple through the system¹.

1. Flyvbjerg, B. & Gardner, D. How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything In Between. (Currency, New York, 2023).