Annie Duke lays out a series of questions we can ask ourselves about a given belief1:
- How do I know this?
- Where did I get this information?
- Who did I get it from?
- What is the quality of my sources?
- How much do I trust them?
- How up to date is my information?
- How much information do I have that is relevant to the belief?
- What other things like this have I been confident about that turned out not to be true?
- What are the other plausible alternatives?
- What do I know about the person challenging my belief?
- What is their view of how credible my opinion is?
- What do they know that I donât know?
- What is their level of expertise?
- What am I missing?
1. Duke, A. Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Donât Have All the Facts. (Portfolio, New York, 2019).