Interesting Mental Models and Axioms

Micro-pessimist, macro-optimist Belief that things will get better overall, but we must look to improve within our local domain.
Pareto Principle The Praeto principle argues that 80% of the outcomes comes from 20% of the causes.
Lindy Effect The longer something has persisted, the more likely it is to persist
Goodhart’s Law When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure
Schelling Point An answer that people tend to choose by default without communicating with others.
Survivorship bias Undue focus on those who made it past a selection, while ignoring those who did not
Never letter a good crisis go to waste Watch for opportunities and opportunists in a crisis
Parkinson’s Law Work expands or contracts to fill the time available to complete it
Monkeys and Pedestals Moonshot projects tend to focus on the banal rather than the hard and important
Adverse Selection Those proposing a trade are likely to have more information than the proposal receiver
Brooks’s Law Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later
Picks and Shovels Look for supporting, adjacent businesses to a boom or craze
Prospect Theory People seek certain gains even with higher EV options while they seek to avoid losses.
Regression to the Mean Subsequent samplings after an extreme sample are likely to be closer to the mean.
Anchor and adjustment effect
Go Fever
Apple Pie Position
Collective Action Problem
Black Swan Event
Crusonia Plant
“Strategy” is an abused term

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