| Micro-pessimist, macro-optimist |
Belief that things will get better overall, but we must look to improve within our local domain. |
| Pareto Principle |
The Praeto principle argues that 80% of the outcomes comes from 20% of the causes. |
| Lindy Effect |
The longer something has persisted, the more likely it is to persist |
| Goodhart’s Law |
When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure |
| Schelling Point |
An answer that people tend to choose by default without communicating with others. |
| Survivorship bias |
Undue focus on those who made it past a selection, while ignoring those who did not |
| Never letter a good crisis go to waste |
Watch for opportunities and opportunists in a crisis |
| Parkinson’s Law |
Work expands or contracts to fill the time available to complete it |
| Monkeys and Pedestals |
Moonshot projects tend to focus on the banal rather than the hard and important |
| Adverse Selection |
Those proposing a trade are likely to have more information than the proposal receiver |
| Brooks’s Law |
Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later |
| Picks and Shovels |
Look for supporting, adjacent businesses to a boom or craze |
| Prospect Theory |
People seek certain gains even with higher EV options while they seek to avoid losses. |
| Regression to the Mean |
Subsequent samplings after an extreme sample are likely to be closer to the mean. |