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Speed and Scale: An Action Plan for Solving Our Climate Crisis Now

Goal of Net Zero by 2050

  1. Electrify Transportation
  2. Decarbonize the Grid
  3. Fix Food
  4. Protect Nature
  5. Clean up industry
  6. Remove Carbon

These map to broad categories of Cut(reduce emissions), Conserve(efficiency), and Remove(clean up).

He seeks to accelerate progress with:

  1. Policy & Politics
  2. Movements
  3. Innovation
  4. Investment

He assigns contribution in gigatons this way:

Source Contribution (Gt)
Electrify Transportation 6
Decarbonize Grid 21
Fix Food 7
Protect Nature 7
Clean Up Industry 8
Remove Carbon 10

Green Premium

Vertical “Green” (no- or low-carbon) price Traditional product price Green premium
Electricity $0.15 / kWh* $0.13 / kWh** $0.02 / kWh (15%)
Passenger EVs (U.S. prices) $36,500 (Chevy Bolt) $25,045 (Toyota Camry) $11,455*** (46%)
Long-haul trucking/shipping transportation fuel $3.18 / gallon (B99 biodiesel) $2.64 / gallon (diesel) $0.54 / gallon (20%)
Cement $224 / ton $128 / ton $96 / ton (75%)
Aviation fuel $9.21 / gallon $1.84 / gallon $7.37 / gallon (400%)
“Round trip (economy) SFO to Hawaii $1069 / ticket $327 / ticket $742 / ticket (227%)
Ground beef hamburger meat $8.29 / pound $4.46 / pound $3.83 / pound (86)

Electrify Transportation

  • KR 1.1 Price EVs achieve price-performance parity with new combustion-engine vehicles in the U.S. by 2024 ($35K), and in India and China by 2030 ($11K).
  • KR 1.2 One of two new personal vehicles purchased worldwide are EVs by 2030, 95% by 2040.
  • KR 1.3 Buses and Trucks - All new buses are electric by 2025 and 30% of medium and heavy trucks purchased are zero-emission vehicles by 2030, 95% of trucks by 2045.
  • KR 1.4 50% of the miles driven (2-wheelers, 3-wheelers, cars, buses, and trucks) on the world’s roads are electric by 2040, 95% by 2050.
  • KR 1.5 Planes 20% of miles flown use low-carbon fuel by 2025; 40% of miles flown are carbon-neutral by 2040.
  • KR 1.6 Ships Shift all new construction to “zero-ready” ships by 2030.

* “The green premium varies widely across sectors

Wright’s law

For every doubling of production, aircraft manufacturers could derive a reliable decline in costs. This allows us to forecast costs based on production.

Decarbonize the grid

  • KR 2.1 Zero Emissions 50% of electricity worldwide comes from zero-emissions sources by 2025, 90% by 2035 (up from 38% in 2020).* ↓ 16.5 Gt
  • KR 2.2 Solar and Wind Solar and wind are cheaper to build and operate than emitting sources in 100% of countries by 2025 (up from 67% in 2020).
  • KR 2.3 Storage Electricity storage is below $50 per kWh for short duration (4–24 hours) by 2025, $10 per kWh for long duration (14–30 days) by 2030.
  • KR 2.4 Coal and Gas No new coal or gas plants after 2021; existing plants to retire or zero out emissions by 2025 for coal and by 2035 for gas.*
  • KR 2.5 Methane Emissions Eliminate leaks, venting, and most flaring from coal, oil, and gas sites by 2025. ↓ 3 Gt
  • KR 2.6 Heating and Cooking Cut gas and oil for heating and cooking in half by 2040. ↓ 1.5 Gt
  • KR 2.7 Clean Economy Reduce reliance on fossil fuels and increase energy

efficiency to quadruple clean energy productivity rate (GDP ÷ fossil fuel consumption) by 2035.

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