Goal of Net Zero by 2050
- Electrify Transportation
- Decarbonize the Grid
- Fix Food
- Protect Nature
- Clean up industry
- Remove Carbon
These map to broad categories of Cut(reduce emissions), Conserve(efficiency), and Remove(clean up).
He seeks to accelerate progress with:
- Policy & Politics
- Movements
- Innovation
- Investment
He assigns contribution in gigatons this way:
| Source | Contribution (Gt) |
|---|---|
| Electrify Transportation | 6 |
| Decarbonize Grid | 21 |
| Fix Food | 7 |
| Protect Nature | 7 |
| Clean Up Industry | 8 |
| Remove Carbon | 10 |
Green Premium
| Vertical | “Green” (no- or low-carbon) price | Traditional product price | Green premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | $0.15 / kWh* | $0.13 / kWh** | $0.02 / kWh (15%) |
| Passenger EVs (U.S. prices) | $36,500 (Chevy Bolt) | $25,045 (Toyota Camry) | $11,455*** (46%) |
| Long-haul trucking/shipping transportation fuel | $3.18 / gallon (B99 biodiesel) | $2.64 / gallon (diesel) | $0.54 / gallon (20%) |
| Cement | $224 / ton | $128 / ton | $96 / ton (75%) |
| Aviation fuel | $9.21 / gallon | $1.84 / gallon | $7.37 / gallon (400%) |
| “Round trip (economy) SFO to Hawaii | $1069 / ticket | $327 / ticket | $742 / ticket (227%) |
| Ground beef hamburger meat | $8.29 / pound | $4.46 / pound | $3.83 / pound (86) |
Electrify Transportation
- KR 1.1 Price EVs achieve price-performance parity with new combustion-engine vehicles in the U.S. by 2024 ($35K), and in India and China by 2030 ($11K).
- KR 1.2 One of two new personal vehicles purchased worldwide are EVs by 2030, 95% by 2040.
- KR 1.3 Buses and Trucks - All new buses are electric by 2025 and 30% of medium and heavy trucks purchased are zero-emission vehicles by 2030, 95% of trucks by 2045.
- KR 1.4 50% of the miles driven (2-wheelers, 3-wheelers, cars, buses, and trucks) on the world’s roads are electric by 2040, 95% by 2050.
- KR 1.5 Planes 20% of miles flown use low-carbon fuel by 2025; 40% of miles flown are carbon-neutral by 2040.
- KR 1.6 Ships Shift all new construction to “zero-ready” ships by 2030.
* “The green premium varies widely across sectors
Wright’s law
For every doubling of production, aircraft manufacturers could derive a reliable decline in costs. This allows us to forecast costs based on production.
Decarbonize the grid
- KR 2.1 Zero Emissions 50% of electricity worldwide comes from zero-emissions sources by 2025, 90% by 2035 (up from 38% in 2020).* ↓ 16.5 Gt
- KR 2.2 Solar and Wind Solar and wind are cheaper to build and operate than emitting sources in 100% of countries by 2025 (up from 67% in 2020).
- KR 2.3 Storage Electricity storage is below $50 per kWh for short duration (4–24 hours) by 2025, $10 per kWh for long duration (14–30 days) by 2030.
- KR 2.4 Coal and Gas No new coal or gas plants after 2021; existing plants to retire or zero out emissions by 2025 for coal and by 2035 for gas.*
- KR 2.5 Methane Emissions Eliminate leaks, venting, and most flaring from coal, oil, and gas sites by 2025. ↓ 3 Gt
- KR 2.6 Heating and Cooking Cut gas and oil for heating and cooking in half by 2040. ↓ 1.5 Gt
- KR 2.7 Clean Economy Reduce reliance on fossil fuels and increase energy
efficiency to quadruple clean energy productivity rate (GDP ÷ fossil fuel consumption) by 2035.