• Ad Hominen: Attacking the person rather than the argument
  • Texas Sharpshooter: Selecting evidence to fit a narrative
  • Bandwagon: Assumption of truth because the majority of people believing it to be true
  • Straw Man: Ignoring the real argument in favor of a distorted flimsy one
  • Red herring: Distracting from the argument with a seemingly related (but actually not) point
  • Hasty Generalization: Jumping to conclusions
  • Appeal to Authority: Relying on an experts opinion as proof of truth
  • No True Scotsman: The changing of the original argument to evade a counter argument
  • Sunk Cost: You should continue an effort based on previous irrecoveraable costs
  • Non-Sequiter: The conclusion does not follow from the evidence
  • False Dilemma: Presenting only two choices, when many exist
  • Tu Quoque: Descrediting an argument because the arguers behavior is inconsistent with the argument
  • Slippery Slope: Starting at benign point and using a series of improbable steps to get to a more radical, extreme end point
  • Begging the Question: Circular reasoning in which the argument is presented in a way that includes the conclusion in the premise
  • Loaded Question: Asking a question with a presumption built into the question
  • Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc: Assuming that because an event followed another that the first event caused the later event
  • Equivocation: Using a word in an intentionally misleading manner
  • Personal Incredulity: Assuming that because you cannot understand something, it must not be true
  • Burden of Proof: The inability to provide evidence that a claim is false is used to prove that it is true
  • Fallacy Fallacy: Assuming a claim must be false because a fallacy was used to argue the claim

Wrong Side of maybe fallacy

When we judge a forecast wrong based on a small sample size, often a single event2


Bloom, S. Thread on Logical Fallacies. at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1429445467063074830.html (2021).
Tetlock, P. E. & Gardner, D. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. (Crown, New York, 2015).

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